Can You Bet on the 2026 Midterms?
Not at a sportsbook. But adults can trade contracts on the midterms on federally regulated exchanges, with state limits. Here is what is legal, the live market prices, and how these contracts work.
No U.S. sportsbook can take election bets. Adults 18 and older can trade election event contracts on CFTC-regulated exchanges such as Kalshi and Polymarket US, or through Robinhood. Rules differ by state: courts bar these contracts in Nevada, and Wisconsin's election regulator warns that a wager on an election can disqualify your vote in it.
What the Markets Say Right Now
Kalshi market prices as of Nov 2, 10:29 AM ET. A contract priced at 62 cents implies the market sees about a 62% chance. Prices move constantly; they are market prices, not our predictions.
Most-traded Senate races
| State | Market favorite | Price | Other side |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | Democratic | 76¢ | Republican 26¢ |
| Michigan | Democratic | 78¢ | Republican 22¢ |
| Iowa | Republican | 50¢ | Democratic 50¢ |
| Maine | Democratic | 72¢ | Republican 28¢ |
| Kansas | Democratic | 62¢ | Republican 38¢ |
| South Carolina | Republican | 68¢ | Democratic 30¢ |
| Minnesota | Democratic | 93¢ | Republican 7¢ |
| Alaska | Democratic | 72¢ | Republican 29¢ |
| Nebraska | Republican | 70¢ | Independent 30¢ |
| North Carolina | Democratic | 97¢ | Republican 3¢ |
Most-traded governor races
| State | Market favorite | Price | Other side |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | Republican | 60¢ | Democratic 40¢ |
| Florida | Republican | 62¢ | Democratic 38¢ |
| Ohio | Democratic | 82¢ | Republican 18¢ |
| California | Democratic | 97¢ | Republican 3¢ |
| Massachusetts | Democratic | 97¢ | Republican 3¢ |
| New York | Democratic | 96¢ | Republican 4¢ |
| Iowa | Democratic | 86¢ | Republican 14¢ |
| Georgia | Democratic | 68¢ | Republican 32¢ |
Ranked by 24-hour trading volume. Party labels come from each contract's question. Refreshed daily through Election Day.
Where Americans Can Trade Midterm Contracts
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Robinhood also lists House, Senate and balance-of-power contracts for adults with an approved Robinhood Derivatives account, routed to exchanges including Kalshi. PredictIt, the long-running political market, operates under a CFTC staff no-action letter with a per-contract cap tied to the federal campaign contribution limit. The international polymarket.com site blocks U.S. users.
Why your sportsbook app has no election markets
No U.S. state lets a licensed sportsbook take election bets, as far as we can find. Nevada, the oldest regulated market, prohibits them even for licensed books, and 32 states restrict election betting in their laws (NCSL, August 2026). Election contracts exist only on federally regulated exchanges, which the CFTC treats as a different product: its October 2026 interim rule says sportsbook wagers are not swaps.
What you can trade
Which party wins the House and the Senate, the balance of power, individual Senate, House and governor races, and on Polymarket US also seat counts, the popular vote and some down-ballot races such as attorney general and secretary of state. Each contract asks a yes-or-no question.
How prices work
Every contract pays $1 if its side is right and $0 if not, and trades between 1 and 99 cents. Buying 100 Yes contracts at 62 cents costs $62 plus fees; if Yes wins they pay $100, and if not you lose the $62 and the fees. You can sell before the result if the price moves. Every platform charges fees: Polymarket US publishes a taker fee formula (1,000 contracts at 50 cents cost $17.38 in fees as of Oct. 19, 2026), and Kalshi charges a fee on expected earnings that can differ for election markets.
When contracts pay out
Election Day is not payout day. Kalshi can settle House and Senate control early on a consensus of media calls; otherwise control follows the party of the House Speaker or the Senate president pro tempore on Feb. 1, 2027. Polymarket US counts runoffs and can wait until Jan. 4, 2027 to see which party an independent caucuses with. Read each contract's rules for how it handles recounts and disputes before you trade.
Is it legal where you live?
Federally, yes: a federal court struck down the CFTC's ban on Kalshi's congressional control contracts on Sept. 6, 2024, the CFTC dropped its appeal in May 2025, and in June 2026 the CFTC proposed a rule stating that elections are not gaming (still a proposal). States have pushed back. Nevada courts bar Kalshi and Polymarket from offering election contracts there. A federal judge blocked Arizona's election-wagering charges against Kalshi in May 2026. Minnesota bars candidates from trading on their own races. Whether federal law overrides state election-betting bans is unresolved: the Ninth Circuit sent that question back to a lower court in August 2026.
Wisconsin voters: read this first
In July 2026 the Wisconsin Elections Commission concluded that state law, which bars voting in an election you have a bet on, likely covers trades on election prediction markets. Voting while unqualified is a felony in Wisconsin. The commission says it cannot police trades, but a voter could face a challenge and a referral to prosecutors. A lawsuit filed Oct. 17, 2026 challenges that reading.
Candidates and insiders cannot trade
Kalshi and Polymarket US bar anyone with inside information or influence over an outcome from trading it. In April 2026 Kalshi fined and suspended three congressional candidates for five years for trading on their own races.
Taxes
The IRS has no guidance written specifically for event contracts. Kalshi issues tax forms only in some cases plus a profit-and-loss statement, and Robinhood issues no 1099 for them, so you may owe tax without receiving a form. If gains are treated as gambling winnings, losses are deductible only up to winnings, and from 2026 only 90% of losses count. Ask a tax professional how to report.
Risks to know
Down-ballot markets can be thin, so prices jump and orders may not fill. Fees reduce every return. Settlement can take weeks. Polymarket US says its resolutions are final. Promo credits cannot be withdrawn as cash. Trade only what you can afford to lose.
New to these platforms? Read our prediction markets guide and our Polymarket US guide. Nebraska voters also decide on mobile sports betting on Nov. 3: see the Nebraska page and our legalization tracker.
2026 Midterms FAQ
Can you legally bet on the 2026 midterm elections?
Not at a sportsbook. Adults 18 and older can trade election event contracts on CFTC-regulated exchanges such as Kalshi and Polymarket US, or through Robinhood, except where state courts bar them, such as Nevada.
Can I bet on the election at DraftKings or FanDuel?
No. No U.S. state lets a licensed sportsbook take election bets, as far as we can find.
Is Kalshi legal for election trading in my state?
Kalshi lists election contracts nationally under CFTC oversight, but a Nevada court order bars its election contracts there. Check Kalshi's own eligibility rules where you live.
Is Polymarket legal in the U.S. for election markets?
Yes, through Polymarket US, a separate CFTC-regulated exchange. The international polymarket.com blocks U.S. users. A Nevada court order bars Polymarket's election contracts in Nevada.
How old do you have to be to trade election contracts?
18 on Kalshi, Polymarket US and Robinhood. Polymarket US also requires the age of majority in your state.
How do election prediction market prices work?
Each contract pays $1 if right and $0 if wrong. The price in cents is the market's implied chance: 62 cents means about 62%.
When do election contracts pay out?
Not necessarily on Election Day. Kalshi may settle chamber control early on media calls, with a Feb. 1, 2027 fallback; Polymarket US counts runoffs and can wait until Jan. 4, 2027.
What happens if a race goes to a recount?
It depends on each contract's written rules, so read them before trading. Settlement may wait for certification.
Do I have to pay taxes on election contract profits?
Generally yes, though the IRS has no event-contract-specific guidance and some platforms send no 1099. Ask a tax professional.
Can betting on the election affect my right to vote?
In Wisconsin, the state election regulator says it can: state law bars voting in an election you have a wager on, and the commission believes that likely covers prediction market trades.