Prediction Markets & Sports Exchanges

Prediction Markets

Reviewed by Matt, SBS Editor · Updated Nov 2, 2026

Prediction markets and sports exchanges let you trade on the outcome of events rather than betting against a traditional sportsbook. They are a distinct product category and are listed here on their own, separate from licensed sportsbooks.

Quick answer

Prediction markets are CFTC-regulated exchanges where adults trade yes-or-no contracts on events, from elections to the economy to sports. Each contract pays $1 if it is right and $0 if not, and its price in cents is the market's implied chance. Major apps accept users 18 and older, and availability depends on your state and the type of contract. Trading on the Nov. 3 midterms? See our 2026 midterms guide.

Kalshi

A CFTC-regulated exchange for event contracts on elections, the economy, sports and more. Some contracts, including sports, are unavailable in certain states.

Get a $10 signup promo when you join Kalshi

New users only · 18+ · Event contract trading involves risk · Not available in all jurisdictions · Full terms

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Polymarket

Polymarket US, the CFTC-regulated U.S. exchange (separate from the international site), covering politics, sports and current events.

Deposit $10, Get a $50 Trading Bonus

18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading involves high risk and may result in loss of your entire investment. See polymarket.us/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange and clearing organization. · Full terms

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Read our full Polymarket guide →

Novig

Peer-to-peer exchange where users trade directly with each other.

ProphetX

Peer-to-peer exchange where users set their own prices and trade with each other.

Name your own odds: welcome offers for new ProphetX users

New users only · Availability varies by state · T&Cs apply

Claim Welcome Offer →

Some links on this page are affiliate links; we may earn a commission at no cost to you. 21+ or as required by the product. How we make money.

What is a prediction market?

A prediction market lets participants trade contracts tied to the outcome of a future event. Prices move with supply and demand, so they reflect the crowd’s estimate of how likely an outcome is. Sports exchanges work similarly: instead of taking a price set by a sportsbook, you trade directly with other users. Because the model differs from traditional bookmaking, availability and regulation also differ, always confirm a product is offered in your state and that you meet the minimum age.

Who regulates prediction markets

Kalshi and Polymarket US are designated contract markets regulated by the CFTC, not by state gaming regulators. States have challenged sports contracts in court and federal appeals courts have split: as of October 2026, courts in Nevada and Michigan have restricted some contracts, and Nevada bars election contracts too. Availability can change, so check each platform's eligibility rules where you live.

How they differ from sportsbooks

A licensed sportsbook sets its prices and takes the other side of every wager. An exchange matches you with other traders and charges a trading fee. They are different products under different regulators, which is why we keep them in their own section rather than listing them next to sportsbook apps.